As anybody who actively follows baseball should know, The Reds' offense knows how to score runs. Their production cut back a slight bit from 2010 last year, but they still managed to score the second most runs in the National League, behind the St. Louis Cardinals. A year before, they were first. If I had to guess the reasoning behind our offensive slowdown, I'd offer that it was losing Rolen 1/3rd of the way through the season, opening up third base to a slew of rookies. Next year, Rolen should be back, and I believe he has enough gas in the tank for at least one more solid year, assuming he stays healthy. The Reds' main problem in 2011 was pitching, starting pitching to be exact. While Bronson Arroyo had never been an amazing pitcher, his stats last year were an outlier, due to his stint with mono and back problems. Expect him to post a decent ERA next year, 3.80-4. The Reds also emptied the farm for starter Mat Latos. Many people seem to think that he will fail in GABP, but those people haven't taken the time to look at the stats. Here are some points:
1. Latos is a strikeout pitcher, with a higher K/9 rate than either Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw. Regardless of where he pitches, strikeouts still work the same.
2. Latos had a home ERA of around 3.10 and a road ERA of around 3.50. Taking into consideration that all pitchers pitch slightly worse on the road than at home, this puts him at about a 3.30, which is a solid ERA, even outside the walls of PETCO. Calling him a product of PETCO makes no sense, really.
The Reds also hope that Mike Leake can continue his upward trend. Improving in ERA, innings pitched, wins, WHIP, runs scored, etc., there is no reason to suspect that he won't. Aroldis Chapman has also been working as a starter over the offseason. We've seen how lights out he can be (aside from a 10 game stretch in 2011), he should continue this as he makes the jump from reliever to starter.
The Reds' Rotation now stands at this:
Cueto
Latos
Leake
Chapman
Arroyo
Which is a pretty good rotation, solid all around.
Summary: The Reds can score runs, we know that's true. The problem, until now, was pitching. Walt Jocketty solved this problem, giving the Reds a solid rotation, and, arguably, the best bullpen in the NL Central (adding the talented Sean Marshall and Ryan Madson, and bringing Homer Bailey to the back end of the rotation.)
The Cardinals also have lost their best player in Albert Pujols. Adding Carlos Beltran was a smart move for them, but his 2011 success was a rarity, given his health. In fact, before 2011, he hadn't played in 100 games since 2008. The NL Central is an all around better division than the NL West as well, so Beltran's success should be minimal. Alongside Pujols, they also lost their talented pitching coach and manager.
The Brewers patched up their defense, replacing Betancourt at SS and Casey Mcgeehe at third. However, losing Prince and Braun (50 games) is going to be a blow to them. However, their pitching is good enough that they'll stay competitive to an extent, but lose in close games, where their diminished offense won't be there to support them.
Look at the Reds compared to both the Brewers and the Cardinals, player by player.
1B- Joey Votto(Reds)----Lance Berkman(Cardinals)----?(Brewers)
2B- Brandon Phillips (Reds)----Skip Schumaker(Cardinals)----Rickie Weeks(mil)
3B- Scott Rolen----David Freese----Aramis Ramirez
SS- Zack Cozart----Ryan Theriot/Furcal----Alex Gonzalez
LF- ? (reds)---Matt Holliday---? (brewers)
RF- Jay Bruce----Carlos Beltran (however long hes healthy)----Hart
CF- Drew Stubbs---Jon Jay---Njyer Morgan
C- Devin Mesoraco- Yadier Molina- Jonathon Lucroy
There is no comparison, really. The Reds were really unlucky in 2011, with injuries and mediocre pitching, but will bounce back next year, due to an improved (500x) bullpen and rotation.
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